The Republicanos party won decisively in Brazil’s state gubernatorial elections, taking control of three major regions in the first round. Their victories in São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Mato Grosso now give them authority over states home to 71.5 million people, representing about one-third of Brazil’s total population in 2026. The party, historically linked to the Universal Church of the King of God, now governs two of Brazil’s top three economic states, with São Paulo leading in GDP and Minas Gerais ranking third. Mato Grosso, a key agricultural center, holds the 10th position nationally and has experienced consistent economic expansion.
The party’s candidates also advanced to runoff elections in Espírito Santo and Acre, where they will face opposition from the MDB and PP parties, respectively. In the Senate, Republicanos secured two seats, with Evair de Melo winning in Espírito Santo and Mara Rocha in Acre. These gains add to their growing influence in Brazil’s political scene. The party’s candidates in runoff include Lorenzo Pazolini in Espírito Santo, challenging Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), and Alan Rick in Acre, facing Mailza Assis (PP).
Meanwhile, the PL, led by presidential hopeful Flávio Bolsonaro, captured control of three southern states, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná, covering nearly 31.4 million people, or about 15% of Brazil’s population. The party also won first-round victories in Rondônia and Roraima, though its most critical test remains Rio de Janeiro. There, Douglas Ruas (PL) defeated Eduardo Paes (PSD) by a narrow margin after trailing in polls.
The final outcome depends on the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), which must decide whether votes for Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos), a disqualified candidate, should be invalidated. If the TSE confirms the disqualification, Ruas could secure an outright victory, bringing Rio de Janeiro’s 17.2 million residents under PL control. The Rio de Janeiro is the third-largest electoral college of the country.
The PL’s victories in the South, including the election of Luciano Zucco (PL) in Rio Grande do Sul, Jorginho Mello (PL) in Santa Catarina, and Sérgio Moro (PL) in Paraná, further solidify the party’s regional dominance. Even with a potential win in Rio de Janeiro, the PL would govern roughly 24% of Brazil’s population, still trailing behind the Republicanos’ 33%. This outcome shows a shift in power toward economically dominant states, where both parties now hold significant sway over critical economic and logistical centers.
